Friday, March 27, 2009

Well Now that the Tourney is Over...


My two favorite college basketball teams have lost in the NCAA tournament, my bracket is officially busted, so it is time to switch my focus to the Brewers. Excitement still seems to be high after making the playoffs for the first time in 25 years. Here is a little look ahead to the upcomming season.

The Brewers off-season was rather ho-hum. They signed a couple of veteran relievers and utility men. The biggest of names is hall of fame closer Trevor Hoffman. Hoffman is not a power pitcher so his age shouldnt be that big of a detrimant, however after last years big signing of Eric Gagne, Milwaukee is starting to look like a place where Hall of Fame closers go to die. He is already hurting this spring and will probably open the season on the DL. The biggest off-season news was the loss of argubly the two best pitchers to put on a Brewer uniform in the last 20 years in CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets. The losses will be felt pretty hard. Yovanni Gallardo and Manny Parra will be the new 1-2 starters for the Brewers. Although young and unproven, these guys have the ability to form a formidable duo. The back half of the rotation is filled with 4-5 starter types in Dave Bush, Seth McClung, Braden Looper, and Jeff Suppan. They also have Chris Capuano who is coming back from major surgery in the mix for when somebody goes down. I dont love the staff but I can see a team ERA around 4.7 mark and that will probably finish them in the middle of the pack in the NL. There bullpen should be improved. David Riske should have a bounce back season, Todd Coffey was the best reliever down the stretch last year and he should claim a roster spot. Carlos Villanueva should settle down in the 7th or 8th inning role. He isnt your typical late inning reliever but he is a steady force in the pen. They also have some younger guys waiting for a chance to prove themselves in Mitch Stetter, Tim Dillard, and Mark Defelice. The names dont blow you away but I have trust in Doug Melvin's ability to build a bullpen.

The real power of this team should be just that their power. In Braun, Hardy, Cameron, Fielder, and Hart they have five guys capable of hitting 25 home runs. Braun, Fielder, and Hart are coming off of down seasons, and they are just entering there primes. I expect big things out of these three. Hardy may regress a bit from last season but I still seem him capable of 20 hrs and 100 rbis. The lineup should be near the top in the NL. I also expect a big year out of Rickie Weeks. If you ignore batting average, a stat most GM's already ignore, Rickie Weeks is an above average second basemen. People always seem to fail to realize that this kid is only 25 years old. His best baseball is still ahead of him. If he stays healthy a 20 stolen base/20 home run season is not out of the question.

Last year the defense went from one of the worst in baseball to soemthng just above average. That difference is what I believe can explain a lot of there success last year. The defensive improvement can be traced to moving Braun to the OF and Bill Hall to the infield and the acquisition of Cameron in CF. They arent going to win any gold gloves but they are at least league average defesively at every position except first base. With the loss of there two aces it is imperative that the Brewers keep playing adequate defense.

It is hard to look at this team on paper and say they are a lock for a wild card or to compete against the cubs and cards for the divsion, but they are definatley an up and coming team. There lineup is loaded from top to bottom, and for the most part none of those hitters have reached there prime. They have a couple of the games best prospects waiting in wings in Alcides Escobar and Mat Gamel, so the pipeline to the big leagues appears to remain intact. They also have a rather deep farm system and 5 picks in the top 125 of this years draft so they could make another block buster deal. Roy Halladay or Jake Peavy could be this years CC if they Brewers remain in contention. I dont see them acquiring a big name until the off-season when arbitration raises may force them to deal Fielder or Hardy. Still Doug Melvin and the new ownership have done a great job taking this team to a laughing stock to one of the better run organizations in the league. I dont see them getting back to the playoffs but 88-92 wins doesnt seem to be that far out of the question. Health obviously will play a huge factor, as they Brewers again do not have a tone of depth like the big spenders do.

Below are some great sites to follow the Brewers.

Fan Graphs

Brew Crew Ball

Al's Ramblings

2 comments:

Timmay said...

Nice post, love the Brewers preview.

Opening day this year? I'll be in attendance.

C-Weed said...

yeah dude, great preview! I would love to do a game or 2 this year we gots to plan one, maybe we should do a deal with it day at the park, sound gay enough for ya! I thought so, lets set it up.